Moldmakers in a Shifting Economy: Consumption Trends, Tariff Impacts and Production Outlook

Global economic growth remains steady but uneven, shaped by moderating demand in advanced economies, persistent inflation pressures and shifting trade policies. While the International Monetary Fund projects global output to expand by just over 3% this year and next, ongoing adjustments in global supply chains and tariff measures, particularly in the U.S., continue to influence trade dynamics.

For moldmakers, these developments matter. Despite higher tariffs on imported molds and raw materials, U.S. molds imports have increased, reflecting both resilient domestic demand and the sector’s critical role across manufacturing value chains. As consumption patterns evolve, particularly in durable and nondurable goods, moldmakers find themselves navigating a complex environment of cost pressures, policy uncertainty and expanding opportunities tied to changing production trends.

While near-term global growth remains moderate and trade dynamics continue to evolve amid tariff policy, the outlook for moldmaking remains cautiously optimistic.

Global Economic Outlook

In the recent World Economic Outlook report from the International Monetary Fund, the global economy is now expected to expand by 3.2% this year and 3.1% next year. Among the advanced economies, Spain and the U.S. are projected to record higher growth this year at 2.9% and 2.0%, respectively, and 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, next year. Still, the emerging and developing Asia region is expected to grow at a faster pace: 5.2% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026. This pace is compared with the advanced economies, which are projected to expand by 1.6% in both years.

The volume of global trade in goods and services is now expected to grow by 3.6% this year, which is a modest improvement from the 3.5% expansion recorded in 2024. However, trade growth is projected to slow to 2.3% in 2026 before regaining some momentum and rising to 3.0% in 2027. The near-term slowdown reflects the lingering effects of tighter monetary conditions, weaker demand in advanced economies and ongoing adjustments in global supply chains against the backdrop of shifting trade and tariff policy in the U.S.

At the same time, global headline inflation is expected to continue its downward trajectory, but remain above central bank targets in several economies. This suggests uneven disinflation across regions, with inflation pressures persisting in economies where labor markets remain tight or where currency depreciation continues to elevate import prices. Importantly, inflation is not projected to reaccelerate globally, signaling that monetary policy tightening in major economies has largely succeeded in anchoring inflation expectations, even as growth prospects moderate.

Tariff Effects So Far

What has been the effect of higher tariffs on mold imports into the U.S. so far? If you are a moldmaker and a member of the Plastics Industry Association, you should be receiving the monthly Mold Trade Statistics. At the time of this writing, however, the U.S. government shutdown has lasted 20 days, delaying the release of trade data from government agencies.

Year-to-date through July 2025, imports of molds (measured by landed duty-paid value) rose 15.9% compared with the same period in 2024. Landed duty-paid value represents the net cost of imported merchandise after clearing U.S. Customs, including the cost of goods, international shipping, insurance and all applicable duties, taxes and brokerage fees at the U.S. port of entry.

Despite higher tariffs, the value of U.S. mold imports increased 10.3% year-to-date through July 2025, reaching $1,186.92 million, compared with $1,076.27 million in the same period of 2024. Exports of molds, in contrast, declined 7.9% over the same period, potentially reflecting increased domestic market activity.

While imports have grown and higher tariffs may have created opportunities for domestic producers by improving their competitive position against lower-cost foreign goods, tariff effects on the broader plastics industry have been uneven. Assessing the full impact of tariffs beyond the short term remains challenging, as U.S. trade and tariff policies continue to evolve. Many reciprocal tariffs announced in April were never implemented, reflecting ongoing negotiations with key trading partners.

The widespread use of blow- and injection-molded plastic packaging in nondurable goods presents significant opportunities for moldmakers.

Consumption Trends and Opportunities for Moldmakers

Consumption drives the U.S. economy and this is unlikely to change anytime soon. It is precisely this dynamic that makes the U.S. the world’s largest market for goods and services. Many countries aim to capture a significant share of this market, not just in finished products, but across an industry’s entire value chain. According to the latest Size and Impact Report of the Plastics Industry, approximately 75.4% of plastic products are ultimately directed toward personal consumption, spanning a wide range of items from toys and eating utensils to detergent bottles, motor vehicles, refrigerators and other everyday goods.

Examining consumption trends provides valuable insights for moldmakers. A practical rule of thumb is that, in the U.S. economy, roughly 32% of total household consumption is spent on goods and 68% on services. Within goods consumption, 32% goes to durable goods, while 68% is spent on nondurables. In other words, the ratio of durables to nondurables within goods consumption mirrors the broader goods-to-services split in the overall economy.

Durable Goods: Automobiles and Light Trucks

Most durable goods made from plastics rely on injection molds. Because household consumption represents a downstream activity (occurring toward the end of the industry value chain), moldmakers should analyze these trends with lead times in mind, as their work is predominantly B2B. Lead times vary by sector. In the automotive industry, for example, they are influenced by a tiered supplier system. In the medical sector, lead times are also tier-dependent, with additional factors such as regulatory approvals and urgent demand affecting timelines. These can range from 4 to 12 weeks, depending on the tier and product complexity.

Regarding new motor vehicle consumption, there are clear trends that moldmakers should note. Over recent years, consumption of passenger automobiles has been declining, while that of light trucks has been increasing, as can be seen in Figure 1. In the second quarter of this year, automobile consumption was estimated at $23.8 billion, which is a decline of 11.8% compared to the same quarter last year. In contrast, light truck consumption rose 10.5%, reaching $246.6 billion over the same period. These trends suggest that moldmaking opportunities are expanding in the light truck segment while contracting for passenger automobiles.

While the divergence between automobiles and light trucks is apparent from the demand side, motor vehicle assembly data confirms the same trend from the supply side. Automobile assemblies have been on a long-term decline. Prior to 2020, quarterly automobile assemblies averaged above 2 million units (excluding the pandemic-related dip), but in recent periods they have fallen below 2 million, as illustrated in Figure 2.

Industry trends rarely shift abruptly. With both demand and supply tilting toward light trucks, it is reasonable to expect that new tooling opportunities will continue to grow faster in the light truck segment compared to passenger automobiles. While industries periodically experience disruptions, recent years have seen the entry of electric vehicles as a significant factor. Data indicate that electrification has been more pronounced in light trucks than in automobiles. This is largely driven by higher battery requirements to achieve adequate range in light trucks, which in turn limits model availability and contributes to fleet hesitancy.

Durable Goods: Recreational Goods Vehicles and Household Appliances

In addition to automobiles and light trucks, durable goods consumption in sports and recreational vehicles and household appliances has been rising. Production lead times in these sectors vary significantly, a factor moldmakers must account for when interpreting consumption data and its implications for their business. Stronger consumption growth signals future inventory replenishment downstream.

The recreational goods and vehicles market (encompassing video and audio equipment, information processing equipment, sports and recreational vehicles and related categories) was valued at $798.9 billion in Q2 2025. Based on end-of-quarter data, the sector achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% through the second quarter of 2025. Within this market, sports and recreational vehicles represent a $89.2 billion segment, which has grown at a 2.0% CAGR over the past five years.

Nondurable Goods and Moldmaking

The widespread use of blow- and injection-molded plastic packaging in nondurable goods presents significant opportunities for moldmakers. Key categories include food and beverage products (e.g., yogurt cups, beverage bottles), personal care and cosmetics (e.g., shampoo bottles, lotion pumps), pharmaceuticals and medical supplies (e.g., pill bottles, syringe casings), household and cleaning products (e.g., detergent pods, spray triggers) and disposable consumer goods (e.g., cutlery, food storage containers). These applications rely heavily on precision-molded components for functionality, safety and shelf appeal.

As with durable goods, lead times in nondurable goods vary significantly across sub-sectors, which is a critical factor moldmakers must consider when interpreting consumption data. Industry reports indicate that in consumer packaged goods (CPG), total product lead times from concept to shelf typically span 3 to 6 months, with packaging development and production accounting for 20–30% of this timeline due to customization, regulatory compliance and material validation (Deloitte, 2025). Specifically, injection-molded plastic packaging (such as yogurt cups or condiment containers) requires 4 to 12 weeks from mold design through production and testing, depending on complexity, cavity count and order volume (Plastics Technology Magazine, 2024). Blow-molded items like HDPE bottles often follow similar timelines, but may extend slightly due to larger tooling requirements.

Pharmaceuticals and Medical Products

Overall, nondurable goods consumption in the U.S. economy has continued its upward trajectory, as can be seen in Figure 3, reaching $3.5 trillion in Q2 2025. Among high-growth segments, pharmaceutical and medical products stand out, with consumption totaling $657.4 billion in the second quarter. Using end-of-quarter data, this category recorded a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7% over the five-year period ending Q2 2025, driven by aging populations, chronic disease management and post-pandemic healthcare demand.

Personal Care and Processed Dairy Products

While smaller in scale, personal care products also demonstrated resilient growth, achieving a 5.4% CAGR over the same five-year period, with consumption reaching $187.6 billion in Q2 2025. This reflects sustained consumer spending on hygiene, grooming and wellness products, supported by innovation in sustainable and premium packaging formats.

In contrast, processed dairy products (a key user of injection-molded packaging such as yogurt cups and cheese containers) grew more modestly, with a 1.2% CAGR over five years, reaching $60.3 billion in Q2 2025. Meanwhile, household cleaning products, despite heavy reliance on molded plastic packaging (e.g., trigger sprays, caps, and pods), experienced near-stagnation, posting a -0.4% CAGR and a market size of $32.7 billion in Q2 2025. This decline may reflect the lack of new product offerings in the market, lower growth in households (higher rate of household formation supports higher consumption of household cleaning products) and the leveling off of demand as pandemic-driven hygiene concerns have eased.

With both demand and supply tilting toward light trucks, it is reasonable to expect that new tooling opportunities will continue to grow faster in the light truck segment compared to passenger automobiles.

Mold Production Outlook

In summary, while near-term global growth remains moderate and trade dynamics continue to evolve amid tariff policy, the outlook for moldmaking remains cautiously optimistic. Continued strength in U.S. consumption, particularly in durable and nondurable goods that rely heavily on molded components, provides a solid foundation for steady demand. At the same time, expansion in light trucks, medical products and select consumer markets presents opportunities for moldmakers to align capacity and innovation with emerging trends.

In PLASTICS’ latest quarterly forecast, mold production is projected to expand modestly this year by 0.7% from 2024 levels, reflecting ongoing inventory normalization and cautious investment amid economic headwinds. At the time of drafting this article, the GBI Moldmaking index in [October stood at 45.1, indicating continued contraction but stabilization relative to prior months], which underscores a cautiously optimistic outlook.